Sans Mirror  

Why is Canon seemingly going all-in on APS-C (except for lenses, buzz, buzz)? Counting only "current models," with the recent R50V introduction we now have five full frame cameras (RF) and five crop-sensor ones (RF-S) from the Red logo crew. I'm told that Canon isn't done with APS-C yet, and we'll get at least one additional crop sensor camera announcement this year. 

Meanwhile, Nikon is at six full frame cameras (FX) but only three crop-sensor ones (DX). Sony's current lineup consists of eight full frame cameras (FE) and four crop sensor ones (E), with two of the latter being six years old. 

It's all about market share. Canon's stated goal is to keep 50% of the on-going camera market. You simply don't attain that level of market dominance without a plethora of products for the proletariat. Yes, US$1000 full frame mirrorless cameras have proven profitable to sell, but that happens at a lower margin than the camera companies desire. That's why those entry full frame models use old, established tech (image sensor, processor) , as the big R&D investments for that tech have already been diluted across a lot of product.

I'm pretty sure that the business dynamics today are still much as they were through the DSLR era: the image sensor and processor are the two most expensive components in a camera; full frame image sensors, even the older ones, are at least 3x the cost of an APS-C one. Remember, the rule of thumb is 3.5x the cost gets passed to the consumer, so that makes the actual change to the list price all the way up to 10.5x. Thus, if you want to have pricing and sales flexibility at the low end, you really want to be making APS-C cameras. 

Curiously, I noted a change in Nikon management plans over the past year. Coming out of the pandemic their management plans were touting that they'd concentrate on higher-end prosumer/pro products. Lately, that same management has shifted to "support all generations of fans," a subtle way of saying that lower cost, lower capability products do have a place in their lineup. The recent Z50II at US$910 (body) is arguably the best of the bunch in its price class, so Nikon continues to try to find customers in the price-sensitive crowd. 

All the camera companies are now looking more for future customers, too. The group that started in film SLRs, transitioned to DSLRs, and now is buying at the highest end of mirrorless is older and about to get smaller in size. You've seen the result in all the camera marketing materials lately: creators, influencers, and other euphemisms for "find a new, younger customer to hook and grow with."

It wasn't a coincidence that Canon introduced the R50V with the V1 here in the US. While CanonUSA's marketing team—which has been decimated several times now—wasn't able to get the message out, here it is in a nutshell: "We have cameras that appeal to those who want something more than their phone offers them. That starts with our new large sensor compact camera, the V1, which is targeted at creating videos and stills that stand out from the pack; to the also new R50V, which offers a step up into the world of interchangeable lenses with even more video and image capability; all the way to our long-established and respected RF mirrorless lineup that has models that range from entry level to top-of-the-line professional and even extends into Hollywood cinema. Start with us, and we'll have you covered as you grow into new needs and capabilities."

You don't get 50% market share by selling only the top kit (e.g. RF mirrorless). Indeed, the recent sales numbers I've seen is that both Nikon and Sony have basically cratered Canon's previous big lead in the pro market. For those of you with short memories (or who weren't born yet ;~), Canon's rush to huge success in film SLRs starting in 1990 was centered around a marketing campaign that told you that you could take action tennis photos just like a pro—or at least Andre Agassi—with this thing called Rebel. 

So here's the challenge for Canon: where's the marketing campaign to go with the R50V? "Built for creators. Made for video." seems both me-to, as well as a bit displaced. "For the Stills Photographer" is a paragraph at the bottom of their product overview, almost as if they remember, oh, the camera can take stills, too. True creators produce both stills and video, even if they concentrate on video (curiously, Canon plays up vertical movies without mentioning TikTok or Reels or anything else that says that Canon understands what a creator does). 

I've been pretty harsh on the camera companies for their poor marketing skills over the years. Confusingly, their marketing has gotten worse—far worse—to the point where today even the crudest AI could do a better job. 

The bottom line is that it takes more than just some new product to win market share. I get a sense that there's some clearer strategy and planning going on in Canon HQ and R&D with regard to mirrorless (finally!). But I also get the sense that they don't know how to deliver the punch line.