Lenses from all nations—okay, two nations—seem to be lining up to make this month's CP+ show in Japan into a slugfest of lens product announcements.
We've already had a few show up early: Nikon 35mm f/1.2 S, and the three OM repackages. But I'm now tracking lens announcements from at least eight other companies that are basically targeted at CP+ buzz, and I'm not sure the two companies I just mentioned are fully done.
CIPA reported about a 10% increase in lens sales for 2024 over 2023 (which was a flat year). Add to that the unknown number of Chinese lenses that also got sold during the year, and it's possible that the overall attach rate hit 2x during the year. (Attach rate is the number of lenses sold per body sold.)
Meanwhile, Tamron just reported that they expect to finish their fiscal year with more than 29% revenue growth, and have upped the number of new lenses they expect to produce each year from the old five/year to double that at ten/year.
What's driving this lens surge? Probably this:
That's the CIPA unit volume for mirrorless bodies from the low it hit in 2020 (pandemic related) to the present. If you map DSLR body sales against that you get:
Mirrorless grabbed the primary market share for ILC in 2020—DSLR still had the majority of sales in 2019—and as many of these cameras are now going to people who either (a) didn't have a DSLR or (b) had a DSLR but need to build a new mirrorless system, we're seeing strong lens demand.
I'm not predicting that mirrorless will continue with that upward slope in terms of sales. At the point where DSLR sales near zero, I expect the ILC market—which would be almost all mirrorless—to plateau. Moreover, it's starting to be clear that people who buy bodies such as the Canon R1/R5, Nikon Z8/Z9, Sony A7R/A9/A1 are more difficult to get to upgrade. That same problem will likely hit the next generation of mid-level bodies, too (e.g. Canon R6III, Nikon Z6III, and Sony A7V users will prove tougher to upsell).
So enjoy the lens parade that's about to happen in Yokohama. It's going to be interesting to see the Japanese reaction to having more than a few Chinese lenses launched at a Japanese trade show.
