Here's the tally so far:
- Canon — R1, R5 Mark II (plus a Cinema C80)
- Fujifilm — X-T5, GFX 100S II
- Leica — SL3
- Nikon — Z6 III
- OM Digital — OM-1 Mark II
- Panasonic — GH7, S9
- Sony — ZV-E10 II
That's 10 total cameras (five full frame, two APS-C, two m4/3, one medium format).
In 2023 we had 17 mirrorless cameras introduced. At the peak in 2019 and 2020 we had 21 cameras introduced both years. Given that I only know of three more cameras that will be launched this year, we're on pace to have the fewest new models introduced since 2017 (12) or 2010 (11).
The "official" reason for this is stated by the camera makers as "parts shortage." I don't really believe that, though I do think that Sony Semiconductor is doing a bit of choking the camera makers on sensor production, as they're still at fab capacity trying to meet all their other demands (mobile, security, autos).
Each of the camera makers has a bit different problem they're dealing with:
- Canon — Too much inventory, basically. It's difficult to introduce new models into a market where you haven't emptied the shelves of previous models. Moreover, since the way you can do that is to lower the prices on the previous models, new model introduction works best at the top end, where the deep-pocketed folk who are impatient lurk for any small improvement, regardless the cost. For Canon, for instance, they still have 5D Mark IV (DSLR) and R5 bodies to clear out. The R5 Mark II is currently US$1200 more expensive than the older R5 model.
- Fujifilm — Too many models, particularly given their overall market share (8%). The X100VI using the 40mp image sensor basically puts a strain on sensor supply for the X-T50, X-T5, and X-H2. Good thing the latter isn't selling well any more and the first undercuts the second ;~).
- Leica — Same camera in many guises. Leica is set up for low unit volume at high prices, thus you can get an SL in three different sensor sizes, or 60mp in several different models (including non-mirrorless). I do have to wonder how long they can juggle these balls.
- Nikon — Only one hit camera at a time, please. The Z9, Z8, Zf, Z6 III roll has been interesting to watch. Nikon's in no hurry, apparently, despite having dropped to third in ILC.
- OM Digital — Not making money. We finally have reliable reports of OMDS's financials out of Tokyo, and they're still a money losing operation, despite having taken a flyer at selling pre-packaged curry, among other oddities.
- Panasonic — Not making progress. Despite being one of the more active companies in introducing mirrorless cameras in the last two years—more active than Nikon, for example—their market share isn't moving and one has to wonder whether the products are meeting the CEO's stated gross profit margins.
- Sony — Taking a break. After introducing five mirrorless models last year, marketing and sales still has plenty of work to do getting those moving off shelves. R&D seems on holiday as a result.
While my tongue is in cheek a bit with the above, I see the lack of 2024 product introductions as a warning sign that camera makers are more wary of what's happening in the market than they state publicly. As I've stated before, once DSLRs mostly die off—which I expect to happen in the coming quarter—the likely ILC sales volume is going to have a difficult time hitting 6m units a year (about the current level) with just mirrorless alone. It wouldn't take much of an economic disruption—war, recession, tariffs—to make even 5m units tough to hit. Thus, I think the camera makers are perfectly happy with a reduced new product parade for the time being.
Nikon, in particular, seems to have anticipated this and slowed the beat of their drummer way, way down. Sony now seems to be on a release year, rest year cycle (from 2019: 5, 2, 6, 2, 5, 1).
Thus, if you felt that the news section of this site was a little sluggish this year, don't blame me. True, I could have announced about three zillion Chinese prime lenses, but I simply just added them to the database instead.
